Under normal circumstances, political decision making is not suspended until the weeks running up to an election. But with the May 2015 General Election in sight, Coalition partners are already looking to set out their stand and decisions that involve a larger degree of politics are coming to an end.
We are witnessing overtly political statements being made by both parties of the Coalition without them being ‘government policy’. In this environment, the potential for agreement over policies is reduced. Paralysis is too strong a word, but it makes public affairs campaigns that need senior level governmental agreement extremely difficult.
Ministers are now also expressing ‘personal opinions’ so that they will not be limited by the usual constraints associated with being a member of the Cabinet. Whilst they consider that these personal opinions set them free from conventions, such as collective responsibility, they have the desired effect of securing media coverage and showing distance between the Coalition partners. The comments can also still have implications for those named, often organisations.
Collective responsibility, right or wrong, meant that all members of the Cabinet held a single line. Since the start of the Coalition this has roughly split along party lines but has generally held fast on economic matters. Many have been surprised about how long the Coalition has lasted but conscious uncoupling will start in earnest at the party conferences. Set piece speeches will see Ministers explain what they have done, what they would have done differently had they had total power and what they have prevented the others from doing by ‘the other party’.
Both parties will look for political capital out of the conferences and both will seek out a clear position to help demonstrate to the electorate that they are worthy of their vote come 2015.
The Conservative Party has the added complication of UKIP to contend with and this could be an even greater consideration should Douglas Carswell win the by-election in Clacton. UKIP’s failure to win the Newark by-election could prove to be but a temporary set-back with Clacton providing momentum in advance of the General Election.
Both parties of the Coalition have their distractions. The Lib Dems will be focused on retaining as many disenchanted voters as possible and have been trying to warm up the policy machine with the publication of the pre-election manifesto (now delayed). The document has been much touted by the senior party figures and will be debated at conference in Glasgow next month but the Lib Dems will have to ‘shout’ louder to ensure the contents are heard over international events, the result of the Scottish referendum and the build up to the Clacton by-election.
For public affairs campaigns, it means being realistic in the run-up to the election and managing expectations around the issue, particularly at the moment. Just because there is eight months until the election does not mean that Government will continue to operate in a seamless way for another eight months.
There are other demands on Ministers which need to be considered as well as new potential dangers. Most notably, an increased chance of being used as a political football or an election issue which makes life complicated, messy and carries obvious potential reputational implications.
But there are also impacts on officials as well and what they can realistically be expected to do. Drafting poems to celebrate the romance of roads may be in, but significant policy change or even smaller tweaks are out. Longer term horizon scanning type conversations may appeal to some officials more than anything short term. It gives them something to get their teeth into so they can demonstrate value whilst not offering anything too challenging or requiring of immediate attention.
Overall this means considered timetabling for the public affairs campaign. So it is not just with dates of elections, conferences etc but knowing what is achievable and when. It means looking at the horizon when normal politics is resumed.