When the Coalition Government came to office there was a good deal of head scratching by politicians, commentators and lobbyists alike about what this new, for Westminster, style of government would mean. However, after nearly three years we can draw a number of lessons about how this Coalition has behaved and what it means for engagement with government.
- The power of the public – the Coalition has shown that it is particularly susceptible to reversing policy decisions if it believes that large numbers of people are actively against a policy. It would be naive to suggest that other governments haven’t listened to public opinion but the Coalition will perform abrupt u-turns if pressed. Just look at the forest sell off – proposed, being consulted on and then unceremoniously dumped part way through the consultation!
- The role of the media – for a lobbyist the media should only be used at the right time in a campaign but it is an excellent way to demonstrate point one. Ministers in this government appear less concerned with media strategy than under Labour. It can be argued that this is a good or bad approach but the consequence is that Ministers tend to react in a much more ad hoc and uncoordinated way than under the previous government.
- Show me the money – the one absolute constant is the quest to cut the deficit. The government need, and will become increasingly obsessed by, policies and schemes that can be delivered quickly and with minimal outlay whilst securing jobs and growth. 2015 is coming around very quickly and unless the Coalition can deliver a boost to the economy whilst bringing down the deficit, they will struggle to be re-elected (either partner). As we approach the time of the Queen’s Speech, it is these issues that will also dominate the legislative programme but as the Coalition has already discovered, passing laws does not guarantee growth.
- Conservative vs Lib Dem – differences between Ministers are clear and can, sometimes, help a cause. Splits can block as much as unity can help to drive a policy through. Unforced government reshuffles have certainly declined in number and the Prime Minister has so far proved less willing to use a reshuffle as a way of attempting to boost the Coalition’s popularity. Largely the Ministerial team you are dealing with will be the same going forward.
- No political decisions – related to all of the above has to be the realisation that, especially as the General Election draws close, the Coalition will not make any big political decisions. This is partly down to the difficulties involved in binding two parties together on such matters and partly down to a wish to avoid having too many winners and losers from decisions. Just look at the promises made to deal with capacity and investment in roads. No 10 and the Treasury have blocked plans put forward by the Department for Transport and the timescales for a roads policy keeps being put back. Most recently it was meant to be coming forward at the time of the Budget (which was delayed in itself) then June and now ‘this year’. This understanding of how the Coalition is likely to behave is critical and needs to be factored into any campaigns and their timescales. Moving a decision on airports and aviation to an independent Commission helps to cover the Coalition’s divisions over the issue. The Lib Dems are against any expansion in the South East and the Conservatives built their election approach on being against a third runway at Heathrow. But none of the main players have agreed to abide by the outcome of the Commission’s report or even to make any decisions based on its interim report which is all about possible short term measures.
What we need to remember though is that any future Coalition, post 2015, will be very different. Each has to be assessed on its own merits which are all about the policies, the agreement put in place to cement the Coalition and the personalities involved.
So we can start all over again.