Having scenario planned for every eventuality, all good public affairs teams will already have had a plan in place for engagement under the newly elected Government… However, not many foresaw the Conservatives winning an outright majority and this means taking a breath and considering the implications. Even for those that did predict the final outcome, the reality of the Labour collapse, SNP surge and size UKIP vote all need factoring in as well.
There are though quite a lot of known unknowns at the moment. How the SNP group in Parliament will work together and what their programme is? How the House of Lords will behave and, in particular, what the Lib Dem peers think their new role is? Who will push themselves forward for the Labour leadership and what the winning programme might look like?
This means that strategies should continue to evolve and change over the coming weeks. There is no one immediate answer.
Instead we need to think about the following influencing the engagement strategy.
- Policies – Cameron has already promised to deliver the party’s manifesto in full. This infers that there was no strategic positioning of policies in the event that discussions with other parties were required. This is an important consideration for the #GE2020 campaign.
So the manifesto needs to be the foundation upon which engagement takes place, at least to start with. As with all Governments, events will start to take over and strategies may then need to change. The idea that a Government can go from Day One to Election Day on the basis of a manifesto is unrealistic. - The Queen’s Speech – as the first legislative agenda for the new Conservative-only Government this will be a critical programme. The word ‘law’ appears quite a few times in the party’s manifesto so it looks like they will have a robust agenda for Parliament to consider. It will also set the tone for the rest of their time in office.
The programme will be delivered by a new(ish) set of Ministers. When any new Government takes office there are always new contacts to consider and networks to establish. Cameron has gone for continuity rather than reform so the task may not be generally as large this time around. - The majority – in all probability, the majority will disappear across the life time of the Parliament. This could make the opposition parties more important again in, for instance, three years’ time. That would have given them more time to elect new leaders and have a clearer idea about what they want to do. All this makes the next 18 months to two years of critical importance to the Conservative Party. They need to make progress on their policies as soon as possible.
There is also little doubt that this could be a hugely unpopular government. That is not a party political point but instead a reflection of the scale of spending cuts that have been promised. This unpopularity could though be offset by the next issue to consider. - The European referendum – no-one really knows how this is going to play out. The timing may be brought forward to 2016 but its outcome will depend on the deal struck, the PM’s own campaigning, and how organised the ‘stay in’ campaign as well. This makes the whole issue hugely unstable. Organisations and especially companies will be asked what their opinion on in/out is but the nature of the renegotiation may fundamentally impact on them as well. Immigration is about the free movement of people, is about the availability of skilled labour, is about where organisations are based. Hugely complex and cross cutting issues. Many may feel that they want to stay out of the debate but they could find themselves drawn in very easily.
- Westminster only? – depending on the issue, an absolute focus on Westminster may not be the right approach. Council elections also took place on May 7th and in very simplistic terms, the Conservatives did well, Labour did okay and the Lib Dems did badly. Interestingly, UKIP gained Thanet District Council. If the Conservatives’ plans for devolution really take hold then a Westminster only approach will in all likelihood come to an end. For those dealing with transport and health, the city could become the main focus of attention. An interesting side issue is how a Secretary of State will answer questions if they have very little control over an issue any more. Health is a devolved matter across the nations and looks likely to be further devolved to cities so how will Jeremy Hunt as Secretary of State respond to media queries in the future?
No one needs to pretend to have all the answers within a matter of days but it is important to consider the timetable for Government, its likely approach, the key personalities and your own priorities as well. This isn’t just about Government but also about your positions.
But, of course, this has all been considered already….