With this week’s publication of the main party manifestos, the process of analysing what the next government might look like can really take place. What is clear though is that radical is out and pragmatism is in. For those looking to engage post-election this is extremely telling and should inform campaigns.
The approach of the Conservative Party’s campaign has been ‘steady as she goes’ – an emphasis on the economic achievements and a plea not to let Labour ruin the good work. The ‘good life’ is promised. Similarly, Labour has been keeping close to its strength on the NHS. But whereas the Conservative pledge to fund the NHS financial ‘black hole’ has been met with some scepticism, Labour’s promise to do something about the ‘non dom’ tax status was more effective.
However, looking through the manifestos reveals that the parties want the electorate to know what they stand for and have few, if any, radical surprises. It was, for instance, considered that the Conservatives may follow-up on their reform of the Highways Agency by considering the future ownership of the roads network. This did not appear. Labour has promised change but the language in the manifesto is more reassuring in tone, presumably designed to calm potentially jittery business audiences.
That is not to say the manifestos are completely devoid of ideas and an argument can be made that the Lib Dems, with a much more exhaustive approach to manifestos, do outline much more detail than the others.
What do the lack of radical ideas tell us about campaigning under a new Government?
- Tone ideas down – the proposed outcomes may be marvellous but if the pitch isn’t right in the first place then they will get nowhere. This is about getting the language right but also understanding what is possible in the early years of a new Government. It is often considered that an initial honeymoon period allows for more radical ideas to be pushed through. Blair is often criticised for not making enough of his early years and massive majority to get radical policies through. The current climate, polling and manifestos all point to the lack of a honeymoon and absence of an appetite to push ideas through. Nicola Sturgeon may be pushing Ed Miliband to be more radical but it is unlikely he will heed her cry.
- Timing – consideration needs to be given about when an idea or policy is likely to have most traction with a government. If it does not fit with the priorities in the manifestos and / or any coalition agreement then it might be best to wait a little.
- Leadership – depending on the outcome of the election there could be substantial changes in the leadership of some of the political parties. A Lib Dem result of less than 30 seats could see Nick Clegg move on and if either Labour or the Conservatives fail to get into government then their current leadership teams will move on. This could be critical in deciding when and how to engage. The parties will have other priorities so attempting to get anything new on the agenda would at best be a waste of time and at worst counter-productive. That is not to say that some engagement may not be appropriate with the right audiences but leadership change would need to be considered in the timing and approach of the campaign.
Trying to pre-empt the outcome of this General Election, probably more so than any other in recent memory, is largely doomed to potential failure. There is through, no excuse, for not considering the manifestos and seeing how your ideas and policies fit now and then mapping these into the potential future.
There are risks that can already been assessed and timings that can be considered. Just because there is an election campaign on does not mean that your public affairs programme should be put on complete hold.