With the days slipping by until the vote on Scottish independence and the polls narrowing or turning in favour of independence, there is a potentially urgent need for public affairs professionals to think through the implications on their work.
The issue cannot be dismissed simply as a Scottish one. It is not the case that you only have to worry about it if you happen to be working or campaigning in Scotland. The implications for Westminster are huge. This is not just about the economy, the currency etc but about how politics will work in the coming weeks, months and years.
CONSIDER SOME OF THE POTENTIAL RAMIFICATIONS FOR WESTMINSTER POLITICS.
NO LABOUR GOVERNMENTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
They need the seats in Scotland to form a Government. If these go, then they face a massive problem. The type of Labour Party offered to the electorate would need to shift to appeal to voters in the South of England. This is a bit of simplification but it can be done. Tony Blair was successful in making such appeals but others in the party were not happy with his approach.
A SHORT GOVERNMENT
If Scotland detaches itself then it is believed that another election would be required around a year after May 2015. Election campaigning would, therefore, be an ongoing process. If you take the current time in as well. The parties would be campaigning, at a heightened state, for 18 months – two years.
A NON-EVENT GOVERNMENT
If another election is required then a one-year Government would be able to achieve very little if anything at all, even if it enjoyed a majority. So policy-making and decision-making would be at a standstill. For Labour, in particular, that would be a disaster. One year to achieve very little and then facing the prospect of not winning again.
EUROPE
It is difficult to see what could be achieved by a Conservative government in terms of its European renegotiations in this scenario.
THE RISE OF NEW PARTIES
The Lib Dems face the prospect of no longer being the party that others turn to, to form a Coalition Government. Shifts in the structures of the main parties would be quite possible.
OFFICIALS
Civil servants would need to deal with the implications of the separation and will have very little time for anything else.
INTERIM ARRANGEMENTS
In the event of a ‘yes’ vote, consideration should be given, in advance, to what the interim arrangements being proposed by the Scottish Government are and what the potential impact could be on existing UK wide policies and legislation currently being considered.
CONCLUSION
Even if Scotland votes to remain in the UK, there will changes to governance arrangements between Holyrood and Westminster and more than likely for cities across England as well.
Have you factored in any of these or thought about what the vote of the 18th September will mean? Time to start planning.