The result for Labour was worse than anyone really thought possible. Whilst the problems in Scotland were anticipated, the failure to win target seats and for the Conservatives to win them instead, was not.
Miliband’s (expected) decision to step down will signal the official start of the process of soul searching. If, as has been suggested, the party’s programme was the most left wing since 1983 then it has again been rejected as it was in 1983. That manifesto ‘the longest suicide note in history’ was clear in its proposals but the combination of an unpopular leader (despite gains made during the campaign), a perceived lack of economic competence and an unclear manifesto seems to have undermined the party this time around.
However, what the party needs to do next is far from clear. In Scotland it seems to have lost because it was not radical enough but in England is seems they were considered too radical. For a new leader, the fundamental decision is whether to take a Scottish approach – more left-leaning, progressive – or a son of Blair approach – new Labour for a new decade.
So what can we expect from Labour:
- A reappraisal of their tax and spend approach – the mansion tax looks to have cost the party in London and it needs more votes in the South without a radical look at tax it may not be able to find the money it would like to spend.
- Campaigning – it was clear from comments made on election night that the feedback the party received from ‘on the ground’ was very different from what actually happened. In 1955, Harold Wilson complained of the party being a ‘penny farthing machine’ organisationally. In this era, it appears that nationally it ran a slick and polished iCampaign but locally is was stuck with Windows 98.
- Scotland – the Conservatives has never really recovered from the near total wipe-out in 1997, there is no guarantee that Labour will come back from this. This will shift the nature of the offer the party makes especially if there will be less seats in Scotland post the boundary review.
- Parliament – the new party leader will need to pick and choose fights carefully but it will fight hard on the ones it does pick. The challenge is in how much it wants to be seen as championing the victims of the cuts.
- The end of the Brown era – with the removal of the two Eds – Miliband’s (expected) resignation and Balls’ enforced departure – Labour can move on from the Brown era. This may help clear the air as far as the electorate is concerned but the challenge of proving economic competence will remain a critical challenge in the run-up to #GE2020.
Miliband had already produced his #EdStone in the final days of the campaign and it remains to be seen if the Party can cope with being a party of opposition against a single party Government. Ironically, they might find it easier to concentrate all their fire-power on Conservatives rather than having to spilt the attack between them and the Lib Dems.
Cameron will be eager to get on with his programme but Labour may not be ready to oppose it.