This blog is extracted from a talk Stuart delivered to the ERSA Annual Conference on Monday 1st December.
The Labour and Conservative parties represent old politics. They look likely to be the losers at the General Election in 2015.
We are moving into a new era that, despite the country deciding in a referendum to stick with the First Past The Post electoral system, is open to a wider variety of parties.
This is mainly because people do not trust politicians. Mistrust remains high. The expenses scandal really has damaged in a very deep way. Decisions such as Iraq as well.
TRUST
Just a few examples here from polling by ComRes.
Almost two thirds (64%) of Britons in marginal constituencies think that politicians in Westminster work in their own best interests not their constituents. UKIP voters are most likely to think this, but it cuts across party lines.
None of the leaders of the main political parties come out well in terms of trustworthiness. David Cameron has the highest level at just 20%.
So people are looking for alternatives.
Now, of course, one of the losers will end up in Government but more interesting is who will end up there with them and what the impacts may be. The chances of a Coalition are very high. Both the main parties are looking after their core voters but their core voters are disappearing off to other parties – particularly to UKIP and the SNP.
All this is impacting on the operation of Government now as well as looking forward to the election and beyond.
THE SNP
The SNP are building a genuine mass party. Labour may want it but the SNP are doing it. Just consider roughly where the parties are in terms of membership (approximately).
- SNP – 100k
- Lab – 190k
- Cons – 134k
- Lib Dems – 44k
- UKIP – 39k
- Greens – 27k
The SNP could win 20-25 seats and half of Labour seats in Scotland. Labour may want to appeal to their core voters but their core voters may well have already moved on.
The SNP have though already ruled out a Coalition with the Tories but are open to working with others in a rainbow if they were up for ‘the vow’, preventing Trident and reversing austerity. It would ultimately be Sturgeon’s decision as party leader and First Minister but in discussion with the party in Westminster and with input from Stewart Hosie her deputy and a MP, and Mr Salmond doubtlessly.
The SNP have succeeded in motivating the young and made people interested in politics in Scotland again. Actually a couple more ComRes polling findings here. 59% of people think the views of young people are being ignored by politicians, and this is higher still for those aged 18-24 (66%). And generally this age group is less interested in politics, older people are very interested. So the SNP seems to have secured a real sea change. The young do see though that politics is important.
THE GREENS
The Greens will be focusing on keeping Brighton Pavillion but are targeting 12 seats most notably Bristol West and Norwich South, both LD seats. They are putting up around 500 candidates. They are extremely buoyant.
THE LIB DEMS
The Lib Dems are facing carnage but the real issue is how focused and motivated their activists are. If they are out there and campaigning then they can save seats. Keeping half, losing half? Glass half full, half empty? But they will doubtless be a much reduced force. But those places where they are strong on the ground, then there is the possibility of a lot of lost deposits. In the Rochester and Strood by election they got 349 votes.
People actually feel betrayed by Nick Clegg and many think the Lib Dems were wrong to go into Coalition with the Conservatives (44% vs 34%). 19% think that the party has proved they are a party that can form a government by 59% think not all according to ComRes polling.
UKIP
Now UKIP. Well, as Nigel Farage has said ‘all bets are off’! They are controlling the political agenda – immigration and Europe. This is reinforced by Tory MPs who won’t let the PM move away from them. They have momentum and that is critical. However, Rochester and Strood only gave UKIP a majority of 3,000 which makes it winnable back for the Tories.
UKIP are desperately trying to professionalise their campaigning. But just at the recent elections in London, UKIP centrally didn’t know who their candidates were. Each borough sort of did their own thing.
Also as we move towards the election, people will start to ask more questions of their policies. Most recently, deportation. Mark Reckless during the by-election repeated the agreed line and then it got changed instantly by Nigel. And whether Nigel will win in Thanet South is being questioned by the latest polling by Lord Ashcroft. Actually that same polling has the Lib Dems doing okay in their existing seats.
UKIP will probably avoid the problem of the SDP Liberal Alliance in the General Election of 1983. The results were:
- Cons – 42.3%, 397 seats
- Lab – 27.6%, 209 seats
- Alliance – 25.4%, 23 seats
But if you offered that number of seats to UKIP now, they would bite your hand off. The Alliance got a generally widespread vote across the country but not hugely concentrated where it mattered. It may be the opposite for UKIP but they are pushing Labour hard in the north of England.
I haven’t had time to talk about Plaid Cmyru or the NI parties, all of which could be part of any Coalition.
THE FUTURE
But what might a Coalition look like? Well on issues such as immigration, welfare, spending cuts etc we will see a tougher approach, more targets and limits set and a ‘harder’ approach all round.
And because of the more or less shared narrative across the parties there may be degrees or lines of deviation within which the actual policies emerge but we know where the emphasis will be.
We are also looking at a smaller state as well. With all parties looking for others to run services. Deficit reduction will remain at the heart of the next Govenment. So outsourcing looks set to continue but the models may look different – less privatisation and more social partnership.
There are still questions to asked about whether the devolution agenda will be delivered. The cracks appeared even more with the publication of the Smith Commission report. The whole debate also seems to be taking place without really looking at Westminster, what about the House of Lords?
So will it matter much what a Coalition looks like, no. The limited political debate will, in turn, narrow the policy options to any new Govenment.
And just a final thought. A coalition emerged quite painlessly last time. I am not sure it will be quite as straightforward this time. Everyone is going to be a little bit tougher. Could the negotiations take longer? Could that increase instability? All quite possible. All the smaller parties will be looking to drive a hard bargain and may even refuse to work with some party leaders. The first weeks of a new Coalition could be its toughest.