What To Expect From The General Election Campaign

Welcoming everyone back to work and school after the Christmas and New Year break was the General Election.  But if anyone was expecting new issues to emerge as the campaigns were launched then they are sadly mistaken.  We know the battlegrounds even before the campaigns have really got going.

In what was thought of as the official starts to the respective campaigns, news broadcasts were packed with images of the Conservative’s launch of Treasury figures showing the true cost of Labour’s policies complete with ‘black hole’.  A speech from Ed Miliband focused on the NHS was also featured as well.

The Conservatives launched a ‘road to economic recovery poster’ whilst Labour’s first poster focused on the NHS, and was accompanied by a dossier on what would happen to the NHS under another term of David Cameron.

The accuracy of both posters was instantly criticised particularly though social media and the press teams for the parties attacked each other over Twitter.

Whilst the campaign has actually been going since, at least, late last year, the first few days of 2015 show us what we can expect and what those in public affairs need to consider.

1. The issues are clear from Day One – the economy and spending / budget deficit reduction, along with the NHS / protection of public sector services will form the heart of the campaign.  Alongside these will be immigration and Europe.  That’s it.There will, of course, always be campaign specific skirmishes – the war of Jennifer’s ear from the 1992 campaign or 2010’s Bigotgate – but we know what the parties want to talk about.  They want to focus on the issues that the electorate trust them most on.
2. The role of data – all the parties will try to support their arguments with the use of data.  They believe that waving some statistics around will instantly strengthen their arguments.  However, as was clear from the way in which the Treasury figures were criticised by Labour, these figures will come immediate scrutiny.  Labour’s release criticised the ‘dodgy dossier’ and tried to pull the figures apart.  Any statistics issued need to be watertight and this is unlikely to be the case. An Institute for Government blog provided details of what happens elsewhere and shows that a level of independence can be brought to bear.  Labour has suggested such a role for the Office for Budget Responsibility which its chair has backed.  Whether there is time to put such a plan in place now is doubtful.
3. A high level of aggression between the parties – this is not a mass movement election.  This will be an election of nip and tuck, fighting for every last vote, particularly in the marginal seats.For any organisations looking to use the election as an opportunity for engagement then there is a high risk of being used as a political football.  Interventions need to be very carefully considered and balanced as much as possible.  For some organisations though this is less important.  It is perfectly acceptable for organisations to hold principles and to stand up for them.  If that risks making political enemies then so be it.  But whether an election is the right time to make such a stand is more doubtful.  Context can be lost along with the chance of explaining your position to all sides, especially those with who you disagree.
4. Money matters – according to PR Week, the Conservatives will outspend Labour three to one on the general election campaign.  This could have several implications but should mean that Labour and the other parties who cannot raise as much money think about community engagement and the more creative use of channels such as social media.  This may be the most interesting part of the election campaign.  Indeed with more resources at their disposal the most effective social media campaign could be run by the Conservatives.
5. The dual role of manifestos – it is doubtful whether many people actually read the party manifestos outside of the media, politicos and lobbyists.  But these manifestos are not only an appeal to the electorate and state what the parties want to achieve in government but with a coalition looking likely could form the opening gambit in negotiations.  So a more careful reading of the manifestos will be needed.

None of this will make the election any less interesting or exciting but will make engagement that much more challenging.  Many will choose simply to keep out of the fray but that could well mean missed opportunities to raise the profile of issues which can be important especially as the parties get ready to form a new government.  Engagement also needs to timetable possible coalition negotiations.  It could be too late for an issue by the time the politicians sit down to draw up any agreement.  If the current experience is anything to go by then the agreement has had a lasting impact on policy and the Coalition itself has stood the test of time.

In other words, the election campaign may be the last chance there is to influence the fixed five year of any Coalition.  That’s a cheery thought to start the New Year with.